Title: Future Sight Loss UK 2: An epidemiological and economic model for sight loss in the decade 2010-2020

Author: Darwin Minassian and Angela Reidy, Publisher: EpiVision and RNIB, Year of publication: 2009.


Epidemiologists, with a background in ophthalmic research, were asked to derive estimates of the numbers of people that were likely to have age-related macular degeneration, cataract, diabetic retinopathy and glaucoma at two points in time, 2010 and 2020. The cost of society of health and social care provision and support were estimated by an economist.

Key findings   

  • 1.5 million people estimated to have early AMD in 2010. Additionally, 414,000 have wet AMD in one or both eyes and 194,000 have dry AMD. The total cost of AMD was estimated to be £1.6 billion a year.    
  • Over 389,000 people to have cataract surgery in 2010. The total cost of cataract was estimated to be £995 million a year.    
  • More than 748,000 people estimated to have background Diabetic Retinopathy. 188,000 people have Diabetic Maculopathy, which is a more advanced stage of DR that can led to sight loss. The total cost of DR was estimated to be £680 million a year.    
  • 266,000 people in 2010 are estimated to have glaucoma. The total cost of glaucoma was estimated to be £542 million a year.