Using data to respond to the increase of sight loss in the UK
The growing number of people living with sight loss means that reliable projections matter more than ever. RNIB’s updated Sight Loss Data Tool helps people understand and plan these changes at a local, regional and national level.
More people impacted each year
One of the most ways the Sight Loss Data Tool impacts service planning is the providing accurate data on the number of people newly experiencing sight loss each year.
In the UK in 2026, we estimate that around 105,000 people will lose their sight over the next 12 months. This means people experiencing permanent and irreversible sight loss from eye conditions like age-related macular degeneration, glaucoma, or diabetic retinopathy. These people will be living with sight loss for the rest of their lives.
By 2036, we forecast that demographic changes will mean that around 130,000 people start to lose their sight. This represents a 23 per cent increase.
Why understanding sight loss matters
Understanding how the needs of the UK population are going to change in the future is critical when we think about planning services for today.
Sight loss is one of the fastest growing health challenges facing the UK. While public debate often focuses on social care or hospital pressures, less attention is paid to the structural changes in population health that are driving long‑term increases in eye conditions and sight loss.
The new Sight Loss Data Tool brings together the best available evidence and turns it into accessible, local‑level insight.
What’s driving the rise in sight loss?
The single biggest factor behind the projected increase is the UK’s ageing population. Over the next 25 years, the Baby Boomer generation born in the 1950s and 1960s will move into age groups where sight loss becomes increasingly common.
These projections assume that underlying prevalence stays constant. But outcomes could change depending on:
- Medical advances (for example new treatments reducing prevalence).
- Rising health risks (for example more people living with diabetes leading to more sight loss).
- Quality of care (for example delays in treatment increasing avoidable sight loss)
The key point is that projections are indications, not certainties. They show what will happen if nothing changes, but they also highlight where improving treatment pathways, reducing inequalities or investing in prevention could alter future outcomes.
The Sight Loss Data Tool offers a realistic starting point for this work while showing how policy and service decisions can potentially influence what happens next.
The source evidence
There is no single dataset that can reliably estimate the prevalence of sight loss across the whole UK. Instead, RNIB worked with Deloitte Access Economics to bring together the best available evidence from multiple studies, including research focused on different age groups, communities and specific eye conditions.
These prevalence estimates are then applied to official sub‑national population projections produced by the statistical agencies in each nation, allowing us to estimate how many people are likely to be living with sight loss in future years and how that will vary across local areas.
You can explore these estimates in the Sight Loss Data Tool by searching for your local authority, NHS area or devolved nation. The projections include estimated prevalence in 2026 and 2036, plus the percentage change over time. Where available, you can also break results down by age band or severity to support commissioning, service planning and local needs assessments.
Local variation
Because population change is uneven across the UK, this is why providing local‑level estimates matters.
Sight loss will not increase evenly across the UK. Some areas will see much sharper rises than others, reflecting differences in local population growth and demographic changes.
Areas projected to see the largest increases between 2026 and 2036 are:
- South Derbyshire = 36.4%
- East Lothian = 35.5%
- Milton Keynes = 34.9%
- Uttlesford = 34.5%
- West Oxfordshire = 33.2%
- Stratford‑on‑Avon = 33.0%
- Cherwell = 33.0%
- East Hampshire = 32.6%
- Tower Hamlets = 32.5%
- Aberdeenshire = 32.0%
Local variation is one of the most powerful aspects of the Sight Loss Data Tool. It enables commissioners, local authorities, commissioners and NHS providers to plan services based on the specific demographic pressures in their area.
Sign up to the Sight Loss Data Tool
Sight loss is already affecting millions of people across the UK. Over the next decade, the number of people living with sight loss will continue to rise sharply. These trends are driven by well understood demographic changes linked to an ageing population and increasing exposure to age‑related eye conditions.
The projections included in the Sight Loss Data Tool provide a clear and consistent evidence base. By combining population forecasts with the best available prevalence estimates, they give local areas a realistic picture of future need.
The data will not stay static. Medical advances, treatment delays, changing risk factors and local service decisions will shape how the future unfolds. But by grounding local planning in robust, transparent and comparable evidence, decision makers can look ahead with greater clarity.
Join our live briefing
We are hosting an online briefing on Tuesday 12 May 11am – 12noon to introduce RNIBs updated Sight Loss Data Tool. Come and learn about the brand new interface, new features and new metrics, as well as seeing a demo of the tool. To register your interest in attending, please email [email protected]